Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.397623 1.454996 1.514297 1.580348 1.652076 1.727856 1.814287
2026-01-11 1.323825 1.400072 1.481326 1.574878 1.680287 1.796196 1.934440
2026-01-18 1.273462 1.362910 1.460477 1.575773 1.709612 1.861785 2.050456
2026-01-25 1.215003 1.311663 1.418923 1.548177 1.701702 1.880929 2.110286
2026-02-01 1.176117 1.279633 1.396304 1.539461 1.713213 1.921283 2.196026
2026-02-08 1.141273 1.250010 1.374218 1.529043 1.720593 1.955329 2.274457
2026-02-15 1.109656 1.222406 1.352707 1.517403 1.724701 1.984151 2.346657
2026-02-22 1.089246 1.206889 1.344460 1.520837 1.746841 2.036093 2.452415
2026-03-01 1.055173 1.173611 1.313197 1.493874 1.728214 2.032792 2.480443
2026-03-08 1.028124 1.147836 1.290019 1.475818 1.719765 2.041856 2.525666
2026-03-15 1.006413 1.127790 1.273061 1.464715 1.719482 2.061337 2.586662
2026-03-22 0.997282 1.122758 1.274386 1.476851 1.750288 2.124977 2.718457
2026-03-29 0.991145 1.121601 1.280943 1.496615 1.793205 2.209675 2.893692
2026-04-05 0.975133 1.107520 1.270463 1.493180 1.803535 2.247333 2.996734
2026-04-12 0.962371 1.097096 1.264216 1.494957 1.820955 2.296184 3.123164
2026-04-19 0.939243 1.072898 1.239399 1.470565 1.799667 2.284638 3.143243
2026-04-26 0.924320 1.058790 1.227292 1.463041 1.802268 2.309849 3.231008
2026-05-03 0.909467 1.044388 1.214356 1.453822 1.801790 2.329882 3.311019
2026-05-10 0.894841 1.029929 1.200930 1.443395 1.798913 2.345641 3.384305
2026-05-17 0.886346 1.023160 1.197435 1.446618 1.816365 2.395114 3.528640
2026-05-24 0.867459 1.002471 1.174863 1.422138 1.790733 2.371640 3.523149
2026-05-31 0.852371 0.986486 1.158271 1.405720 1.776828 2.367098 3.556430
2026-06-07 0.840256 0.974171 1.146345 1.395615 1.772210 2.377937 3.623257